E3 2010: Predictions & Prognostications

Technology trade shows come and go, but few that claim to represent the gaming industry hold as much clout as the annual Electronic Entertainment Expo (E3 for short) in Los Angeles each summer. And while recent shows have become dryer than toast, this year's event looks to be the most exciting since 2006's game-changing spectacle. With promises of new technology and software from the industry's major players, how things will literally play out is anyone's guess - so why not ours?

Editors John Lucas and Nathan Evans will be taking turns in putting forth their best estimates and guesses about what they expect to see on display at the show. To keep things hot and spicy, we've limited them to major predictions to the three major game console manufacturers (Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony), although the emerging mobile markets (Apple, particularly) will also feature in there as well.

By no means will this discussion be the definitive list of wild prognostications and tasseographic mumbo-jumbo. We'll do our best to keep all predictions based on what we feel are emerging trends and factual data...although don't be surprised if we slip in the occasional wish-list item, too. All should be taken with the saltiest of salt grains, and used for entertainment purposes only.

So with that disclaimer and the requisite niceties out of the way, let's start things off with the company many have called this year's biggest potential wildcard, Microsoft. Take it away, John!

Microsoft Microsoft Microsoft. I see E3 2010 as the make or break for the XBox 360 console. The system is nearly 5 years old now and is not dramatically changing its sales trajectories. Neither here in North America, its strongest base, nor in any other part of the world. To take off on an obscure Atari 7800 commercial, Wii changed the videoGAME. So the 360 had to make the move so far known as Project Natal sooner or later.

Whatever official name Natal finally takes, its success or failure rests on 3 things: One – Does it work as advertised? Two – Is it at a reasonable price? And Three – Can they convince their already established audience to give up the old controls? I'm gonna be Peter Pessimist on this one. My #3 point is the most important. For Natal to be a successful adoption it must be the STANDARD control for the 360. If not, it will be yet another cast aside hot peripheral of the moment.

But by making Natal the standard, they WILL alienate those who bought the system expecting the original controls. When some people saw Wii, they took refuge in the XBox shelter. Now Microsoft is threatening to take that shelter away. If they appease the refugees, then Natal will never take off. If they make Natal the 360 standard, then there will be resentment from their old audience.

After this dilemma is solved, then it has to deliver on its promises to be a FUNCTIONAL controller-less motion control. That's where the Wow factor comes in. If they succeed on these 2 issues, then price must be low enough for mass market. Right now Wii's giving the megadeal out of the box for $200 so Microsoft will have to take this into consideration.

The natural life-cycle of a major gaming console has traditionally been a good 5 - 6 years, but there's nothing traditional about this current generation. Nintendo's Wii has dominated without the benefit of what we were told would be essential in 'winning' the hearts and minds of the gaming public, namely HD graphics and full multimedia capabilities. Four years after its blistering debut at the 2006 show, it still casts a long shadow, and nowhere will this be more felt than with Microsoft. Five years in with their Xbox 360, they're now faced with extending the life-cycle of their aging console with new software and technology... scary proposition.

Despite their attempts to enter early and dominate the industry, they've watched Nintendo's little white (and now black) box steal their thunder, and Sony's recent price-drops and increasingly compelling exclusive software threaten to undo almost ten years of work and investments. Their natural inclination to adopt the pattern of the leader has led them to motion-controls and casual-style gameplay with Natal (or whatever it's going to be called), and it will be interesting to see how they plan to introduce this to their current 40+ million userbase.

The history of the gaming industry is cluttered with the skeletons of failed add-ons and peripherals, and there's absolutely no guarantee that Natal will succeed simply because it adds motion-control to the Xbox 360. Its core users seem anemic to the idea of flailing around the room and I'm sure this is going to be an easy sell for them. As you mentioned earlier, its success will largely depend on how integrated Microsoft makes it to the experience. As much as they'd like Xbox 360 users to pick one up, I don't see them making motion-controls an essential control scheme in the next Halo or Gears of War anytime soon - if ever. I also don't see them including Natal with every future console purchase, either.

It took Sony years to live down the mantra of "Five Hundred Ninety Nine US Dollars" that helped ring in the PlayStation 3, and hopefully Microsoft is smart (or savvy) enough to avoid creating the next internet meme. Call it my lack of imagination but I just can't see anyone calling a $150+ Natal option anything but a major disappointment. Definitely look for at least one packaged bundle, but let's not forget the world is still gripped in a global recession, and even the most exciting gaming choice won't make itself essential if it’s priced out of reach.

To that end, given Microsoft's *ahem* propensity to mimic the competition, I don't think it's out of line to suggest a revision/reduction to their core Xbox 360 hardware. Call it Xbox 360 Slim or Mini, but there's a history of introducing smaller (and less expensive) options to help generate interest - and spike sales. The PS3 Slim was essential in Sony's recent uptick, and I'd be shocked if Microsoft didn't follow suit with a slimmer, less expensive console of their own. And while it may sound like crazy talk, I wouldn't be surprised to see a PS3 Move-style 'controller' addition to the Natal to help give it more traditional control. I really wouldn't.

On the software side of things, apart from whatever Natal titles we should expect at their presentation (count on many Wii Sports-style collections), it'll probably be sequel-city for every major franchise that's still considered an exclusive to the hardware. Halo: Reach and Gears of War 3 will be headliners, as with Fable 3 and anything that still allows them to put the "Only on Xbox" logo on the box. No real surprises, but what's there should be crowd-pleasing and worth looking out for.

Yes, in our private conversations I've heard you talk about the 360 being remodeled chibi-style. And I have a feeling Microsoft will split the difference using Natal for the Arcade model and sticking with the tried and true on their Elites. That may be the way they solve that dilemma. More like hedge bets really. Regardless though, their most crucial error of all would be buying into the phony "casual/hardcore" duality that conventional wisdom says exists. As I like to say, wisdom ain't conventional.

Speaking of buying into that so-called wisdom, that brings me to Sony and the PlayStation Move. I'm still in shock at that Game Developers Conference showcase where they basically cloned Wii's whole identity. From the controllers to the games down to the marketing! I hope they paid Jamiroquai handsomely for using their song because to me this doesn't feel just like it should. When I saw the games in Sports Champions for the first time I could just hear the execs in the boardroom saying "OK, do it like Wii only with HD!" And with Move Party it's like one of the marketing types going down the aisle in the Nintendo section and combining Rayman Raving Rabbids, Squeeballs, and anything that says "casual" into one tidy package.

Sony's playing the tightest 'Follow the Leader' game of 'em all but again it comes down to the same points: One – Does it work as advertised? Two – Is it at a reasonable price? And Three – Can they convince their already established audience to give up the old controls? Unlike Microsoft, Sony has a little more to go on. Sony has already seen what hedging the bets did to the Sixaxis/DualShock 3. Should they be gun-shy again with Move they will doom the product before it gets started. It has to be central to the platform or it's gonna end up like the PlayStation Eye. Once again they will run into resistance from their established anti-Wii audience if they do that but they have no choice.

On price, they're starting off on the right foot by announcing "under $100" in the U.S. Like you said, the PlayStation 3's still fighting off the curse of "Five Hundred and Ninety-Nine U.S. Dollars" so every avenue they can use to get this as cheap as possible will help them. They've reduced DOWN to $300 after almost 4 years of existence. The XBox 360 Arcade model stands at $200 and Wii's packing Wii Sports, Wii Sports Resort, 2 Wiimotes, a Nunchuk, and a Motion Plus all for $200 right now! Both Sony and Microsoft will have to deal with that mega-package dwarfing their new motion-play adventures. But unless Microsoft pulls a surprise at E3 it looks like Sony's got the edge on the price part so far.

On the matter of working as advertised, people have gotten a taste of Move and some say it lags while others say it's superior to Wiimote even with MotionPlus. There's plenty of time to refine that and Sony can prove this point at E3. But Move will not have the Wow factor Natal does because it follows the Wiimote too much. But not where it counts the most. Wiimote's biggest advantage isn't motion control; it's versatility. It can be played in numerous ways (NES style, 'Broken Plank' style, etc.) and can be connected or joined to numerous devices. Its squared-off solid form factor makes this possible.

Sony missed this important point and that's evident when you view the odd colored ball on the ends of the Move controllers. I'm sorry but that thing looks like it's gonna break off when people get rowdy playing motion games. I hope they improve on that in the final design. Maybe set the ball deeper inside the controller for a more unified form factor. That'll solve that problem anyway but it will still fall behind Wii on versatility in control. They can get away with this if they concentrate on making a variety of good games that use Move. As we all know hardware means nothing without the software. But Sony's going to have to get away from thinking of games in terms of "casual" and "hardcore" to do this. We'll see if they can ultimately avoid that trap.

I think Sony has several advantages going into this year's show, not the least is growing momentum at retail and their increasingly important line-up of exclusive titles. Still, the real problem with predicting what Sony will announce is that they've already announced so much already. Their introduction of the Move to the gaming world was a brilliant lob at both Microsoft and Nintendo, if only because it signaled the device was real, it seems to work, and that current users have nothing to fear from this strange (and strangely familiar) new control scheme.

Unlike Microsoft, they've managed to straddle that fine line between the so-called "casual/hardcore" market without pitting one against another, and this philosophy seems to have trickled into the design and function of the Move itself. As you mentioned, it bears more than a passing resemblance to Nintendo's Wii remote and Nunchuk design which, apart from being an evolutionary bridge between digital and motion-controls, should make porting Wii titles to the PlayStation 3 an easy proposition. On the software side, I'm not looking for much in the way of shockers, although don't be surprised to see several key AAA titles (Killzone 3, LittleBigPlanet 2, most notably) to have 'enhanced' Move controls built into them.

You're 100% right about Sony gaining an edge by preemptively announcing (however vague) that Move will run under $100, and I think we'll see a major expansion on their pricing structure and packaging during their presentation this year. True, the PlayStation Eye may have never caught on like some had predicted, but its tech will live on through smart integration with the Move wand and its colored ball. I wouldn't be surprised to see that $100 price-point include both the necessary Eye camera and one wand + sub-controller bundle, with additional pieces falling in line with current controller prices (think $40 - $60).

I think the real surprise (if that's even possible at a show like this) will be Sony's next portable console. The original PSP's time is almost up, and the UMD-free PSPgo has been met with indifference at every turn. There have been rumors that Sony has been quietly selling a considerably beefed up PSP2 portable, with Cell processor-powered graphics, touchscreen controls, and multiple digital cameras in the mix. I hope this isn't the whole story, because if it were than Sony would only be offering an upgrade to match Nintendo's DSi and (increasingly) Apple's iPhone/iPod Touch. If the recent trend in mobile gaming has taught us anything, it's that players don't necessarily want shrunken console-style experiences on the go, but games built to take full advantage of the medium itself. With 140+ million DSs, 75+ million iPhone/Touch's and iPads, and a growing number of Android-enabled platforms out there, Sony needs to realize the old model no longer applies...it's time to step up or get stepped out.

I'm probably dreaming, but a $199 - $250 PSP2 announcement would hit several sweet-spots, and if the technology/software line-up is compelling enough they might actually convince people to go completely digital this time around (given said software is priced accordingly). A surprise Killzone, Uncharted, Gran Turismo announcement would go a long way to helping the process (at least from a traditional standpoint), and to further widen the gap between Sony and their competition. But new, unexpected software is where the real excitement will be. I can't wait to see what they've got planned.

Yeah E3 for Sony this year is to extend their "comeback" in order to break even for the generation. The lower the PS3 costs, the faster it catches up with the 360. I do agree that Sony is probably better at making games for the old audience and the new one than Microsoft but they still suffer from buying into that false duality. They won't have the Wow factor Natal will on E3 but they can pick up the pieces if Natal drops the ball.

As for Sony's handheld ambitions, you say PSP's time is almost up. I say PSP's time is repeatedly hitting the snooze button. That system's done. Been done. What better place than E3 to debut the successor to the best challenger to Nintendo's handheld dynasty ever? They might want to stay way from 2's in the hundreds column though. Between Nintendo's handhelds, cell phones, and Apple's contraptions, overpricing their next PSP would be suicide. They would never get the drop on their competition. And $250 is PSPgo all over again. I don't have to make another joke referencing that lost system again, do I? This time around, I hope they remember that their handheld should have games as a primary focus not a fourth-string purpose.

And you hit the Triple 7s on the Cherry Master with this one! No home console-like experiences on a handheld one. Recognize the platform you are developing for and make accordingly. They would do well to create more of a relationship between their handheld and their home console too. Nintendo's the master of having both home and handheld like one hand washing another.

And I feel that's been one of Nintendo’s greatest strengths since they entered the videogaming field. That WiiDS Phenomenon I go on so much about in the NPD reports is really just the ultimate manifestation of what Nintendo has always done. Game & Watch and Game Boy fed the NES and SNES and vice versa. They've held on for so many years because no one could obliterate both twins at the same time. Sony beat Nintendo's home console with the PlayStation but Nintendo stayed alive thanks to the Game Boy Color (thanks Pokémon) and Game Boy Advance, the spiritual throwback to Nintendo's sprite-filled glory days before the PlayStation took over with 3D. Nintendo understands the importance of handhelds and more importantly the importance of reciprocity between handheld and home.

That's a great point about the strength of one platform compensating for the other, and while the various Gameboy consoles may have sustained Nintendo throughout the late 90s and early 2000s, the PSP really showed that cracks exist in what many have felt was an impenetrable armor. Apple's recent success has come almost directly at the expense of the DS, and we've seen Nintendo react with the DSi and new focus on the DSiWare store. That leads me to what many feel could end up being the most watched technology display at the show (sorry Microsoft), the 3DS.

With hardware that's said to be somewhere between the original Gamecube and Xbox 360 (all rumors, of course) and capable of displaying 3D images without glasses, Nintendo's premature announcement of the next iteration of the DS hardware should be fascinating to look out for. Whether it will feature simple enhancements (i.e. better graphics, control, etc) or a truly revolutionary upgrade remains to be seen at this point, and given Nintendo's recent trend towards gradual updates (i.e. DS, DSi, DSi XL) I'm not placing bets just yet. But the competition in the mobile market is heating up, and like never before, it's one that could see Nintendo's impenetrable dominance crack even further.

But while most eyes will be focused on the portable scene (understandable), let's not discount what's possibly in store for the Wii at the show. I'll bet you a hot lunch that we'll see a combined Wii remote + MotionPlus controller announced, as this really is a no-brainer. When you look at Nintendo's recent decision to make Wii Sports Resort (by be default, the original MotionPlus adapter) a standard pack-in, a reduced-cost combination only makes sense at this point. The Vitality Sensor is still a big 'unknown', but I'm sure we'll see it featured in there somewhere.

Software should prove the real thrust of Nintendo's presentation this year, as while their two biggest (home) console competitors are just wetting their feet in the world of motion-controls, they've got four years of solid foundation to play on. But whenever we talk about Nintendo's software line-up, it's almost a given to divide the market into first and third-party options, as they two are all too often entirely different beasts. Third-party support has always been and will continue to be the biggest wild card, and apart from the usual Guitar Heroes, Rock Bands, and EA Sports additions, I'm looking to the indie developers and their downloadable WiiWare titles to really shine this year.

On the first-party front, I don't think anyone could deny that one of - if not the - most anticipated game at the show will be the next Legend of Zelda. Not much is known about Link's next adventure, and as the first real original Zelda title developed for the console (Twilight Princess was a Gamecube port), it will be interesting to see if they take the Mario Galaxy route and really innovate this time around. Just as long as there's an orchestrated score, I'll be fine. Again, orchestrated score Nintendo, make it happen.

Also, look for Metroid: Other M to make a big splash, and I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one marquee title using the new Vitality Sensor on display. A Wii Music sequel isn't out of the realm of possibility, although I think we can probably expect to see new 'Wii' focused franchises at play here. Wii Party seems a likely candidate, and given the company's massive stable of un-mined gold, anything is possible at this point. My personal wish-list includes (but not limited to) a new Kid Icarus, Starfox, and even F-Zero. Dare I dream?

Coming to E3 and announcing ANYTHING concerning F-Zero, Starfox, Pikmin, or Kid Icarus would be spectacular! We've waited long enough. F-Zero for Wii with Mario Kart Wii-smooth online is money in the bank. A direct Starfox not outsourced but made in-house by Nintendo may finally get that franchise back to Starfox 64 level (boy that game was good!). I love Pikmin! Let's see Pikmin 3 already! And no more tease with the Kid Icarus. The Kid's collecting Social Security he's waited so long!

Anyone of those titles announced alone will bring goodwill to the Wii console. Put it with nice teaser from the anticipated Zelda Wii and Nintendo will get some headlines outside of the Natal extravaganza. I hope the guy that saw Zelda at E3 2004 doesn't scream too loud. Miyamoto whatever you do, don't come out with a Hyrulean sword and shield! No doubt that software will have to be the focus of Nintendo's presentation. A taste of the franchise players, a smidgen of the new Wii audience thing, a smattering of choice 3rd party support, and you got yourself a good show.

But Nintendo has some hardware to show off and I'm most anticipating that Vitality Sensor. A lot of people laughed that off last E3 when Iwata just rolled out there out of nowhere. But I see promise from that device. Videogaming designed to relax instead of energize. I like it when people start thinking on those levels. When they try to get into the essence of why we play. I hope the form factor isn't clumsy though. It looked a little clunky before. Awkward looking.

I don't know about an all-in-one integrated Wiimote with MotionPlus ability inside just yet. But eventually that will be the design. Just not sure it will make its debut at this E3. You never know though. Either way while Microsoft and Sony will try to wow with their new-fangled hardware, Nintendo will just further showcase the promise of the Wii in action in playable titles.

As for the handheld scene, I think this is where most of Nintendo's strategical focus is put upon. Apple's edging into the games business more and more forcing Nintendo to reevaluate their entire handheld business model. Nintendo hopes the 3DS can cut them off at the pass. On paper it sounds good. As powerful as the offspring of a Gamecube and 360? 3D play with no glasses tieing into the upcoming 3D TV sets. But for me it sounds like too soon. There are people who just got used to their DSi's and now Nintendo does this? Apple's gadgets bring us back to the old argument between consoles and computers. Why get a game machine when I can play music, watch movies, talk to friends and family, go online, share pictures, AND play games too? Nintendo's been here before and the 3DS has to once again make that question obsolete.

How are they aiming the functions of the 3DS and can they outdo Apple's digital download service to slow Apple as a go-to gaming device?

Apple will certainly present the most interesting disruptor for Nintendo's future mobile plans (much like Nintendo's own Wii disrupted the Xbox 360 and PS3's original plan), and I'm most curious to see whether they act or react to the increasingly buoyant iPhone market. Just look at Apple's recent announcement of their next-generation phone, the iPhone 4. Dual-cameras (i.e. the DSi) will allow for video chat over WiFi services...will be see something similar in the 3DS? Rumors have pegged true VoiP and/or video chat coming to the 3DS (or possibly PSP2) for some time, and it's not hard to imagine a Skype-like service adding that functionality to the portable console market. If the 3DS allows for an iTunes-like application/game library, its accessibility would very likely only be limited by the power of the hardware and Nintendo's blessings on approval - not one of Apple's strongest suits, to be honest.

One final thing, if I may lapse back for a moment. I'm amazed that more industry outlets aren't even discussing Apple's impact on the show, and I think this is a major mistake; their presence will be unavoidable.

It's certainly a lot to take in and ponder, and I wonder just how many of our wild predictions will prove true next week. With so much new (as well as previously announced) tech going to be on the floor, it'll take a Herculean effort to make sure that non-attendees get a sense - a motion sense, if you'll forgive the pun - of what to expect from these efforts to extend the current generation further than ever before. I know our crew (representing both Popzara and Playswitch websites) will do our best to help guide these streams, and we'll have to convene again post-show to compare scoreboards.

For more exclusive coverage of the 2010 E3 Show, be sure to check out all the goods starting Monday, June 14th over at Playswitch.com...it's gonna be good!