Silent Night

December is here once again, that month originally named for the number ten. And once again the desperate retailers warp a symbolic religious ritual (Gold, Frankincense, Myrrh) into the modern-day religion of Consumerism. People bust their meager budgets trying to satisfy the whims of loved ones and liked acquaintances. All for gift-wrapped tokens of affection. Capitalists count on this yearly frenzy to boost the bottom lines on their fiscal ledgers. Celebrating as they look over their new riches, I’m sure they shout, “Christ! What a mass!”

What a mass indeed when we look at the latest figures from The NPD Group, Incorporated. Those who concentrate on the empty half of the glass will only see that this December fell behind last December in sales. But those who see the whole glass for what it is recognize that this is the 3rd best December in videogame history! To match up with the past 2 years fueled by record-making Nintendo sales (New Super Mario Bros. Wii especially fueling 2009) is quite a feat and deserves congratulations. In fact, the half-year standoff between Nintendo and Microsoft on the charts made this sales thing more interesting than it had been in quite awhile. Sets up the suspense for 2011 nicely now that the 5-year console cycle tradition is broken. There’re many presents to unwrap here so let’s rip open these guesstimates from NPD to you and me.

Nintendo’s DS got a personal sleigh ride with Santa Claus selling (Ho ho ho!) 2,500,000 dynastic sellers in the month of Human Rights Day. In the month of World Kindness Day, DS Triforce sold 1,500,000 of its tri-modeled kind showing a great increase. Well, the DS family didn’t quite break last year’s record performance. Nevertheless, this will make the 3rd best-selling December the handheld has ever had. This December is also the last one DS will have as Nintendo’s primary handheld platform. Starting this coming March (February for Japan), the world will finally get a chance to try out 3D without glasses when the 3DS takes over from the old DS line. But that doesn’t mean the old DS’s will just be sent off to pasture. Look at how long the PlayStation 2 has stayed on the charts.

By the way, this month helps the DS beat out the PS2 to become the best-selling U.S. console (home or handheld) in videogame history (over 47 million sold)! It’s only a matter of time before it comes for PS2’s record worldwide total (best-selling console of all time). Sure it’s a bit of an apples and oranges comparison with home systems and handhelds but hey, record sales are record sales.

Nintendo’s Wii got the gift of its dreams selling (HAW!) 2,360,000 red hots on the month of the Nobel Prize. In the month the Berlin Wall began to fall, the prolific pronoun sold 1,270,000 black-white-and-reds all over showing a very necessary increase (nearly double!). Talk about a save! Wii once again pulled it out of the fire in the holiday months. And in the process it got the 2nd best December sales it ever had! Not quite enough to beat that Thriller-level December 2009 but who could really? Also, for the first time since May, Wii stands atop the home console hierarchy FINALLY topping the volcanic XBox 360.

Thanks certainly goes out to the red Wii packed with New Super Mario Bros. Wii, Just Dance 2, Donkey Kong Country Returns, Epic Mickey, and a host of other games which made Wii a go-to console this month. Snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, Wii once again remained the year’s best-selling home console for the 4th year in a row. But it was a close one this time. Nintendo will have to shake up this pattern of holiday-seller/everyday-staler for 2011. The mid-year dip, end-year blip sales trajectory must end and Wii needs to keep up excitement for the console year-long. Maybe when the 3DS launch gets out of the way, they will return focus to the homestead. We’ll see if they really got 360’s number (like the thousands columns in this month’s total) after the income tax refund spree ends by spring.

Microsoft’s XBox 360 opened the big present under the tree with (hoo!) 1,860,000 Kinexboxes sold in the month of Bill of Rights Day. In the month Microsoft first released Windows, Three Sixty sold 1,370,000 projected Natals showing a good increase. Ooooh! So close! Almost, guys. Almost. The 6-month streak of beating the once-unbeatable Wii has ended for the 360. But they have nothing to be ashamed about with these numbers. December represents the best sales month in XBox 360 history! No, not just the best December in XBox 360 history (which it is). The best sales month…EVER for the 360 (beating December 2008’s 1,440,000). U.S. AND Worldwide!

The 360’s rebirth in June at the 2010 Electronics Entertainment Expo (E3) finally added some new wrinkles to this console war fabric. What had become predictable suddenly became anyone’s game to win. Whether you chalk 360’s victories up to re-purchasers hoping to avoid red rings of death or newcomers banking on Kinect being the next big thing, no one can take away 360’s achievements. Count ‘em, 7 months out of 12 beating the established leader of the generation. The majority of the year! Unheard of in this generation.

Strange that Major Nelson (AKA Larry Hyrb, XBox Live’s Director of Programming) said that Microsoft ran out of consoles at the end of December. It seems it was already pre-printed that the 360 would be the best selling home console of 2010. I would think that Microsoft would pull out all the stops to get that stat. Supply constrained at this stage in the game? A curious development. However, long-term momentum looks to be in favor of the 360 for 2011. If they can keep it up, they may just get the best-selling stat for next year.

Sony’s PlayStation 3 waited patiently on Christmas Eve with (hmm!) 1,120,000 moveable objects sold in the month the Salvation Army rings the bell. In the month the Shriners’ ride on Veterans Day, Kaz Hirai’s saving throw sold 530,000 sporting champions showing more than double its previous output! Another year the PS3 has had a 7-digit December total. Before 2009, the PS3 never knew what a monthly million meant. But this generation’s underdog continues to pull in the big numbers when it counts. Not quite as much last year (1,360,000) but last year the PS3 had the power of the Phoenix behind it.

Obviously that fiery phoenix has cooled off now (ice cold!) and so has PS3’s momentum in the wake of 360’s sensational surge. Gran Turismo 5, the game the PS3 was made for, didn’t spark console sales as much as was hoped for. Move sold a good bit but Kinect sold a good bit more. It was like the PS3 coasted its way through the holidays half-asleep by the fireplace. Perhaps the debut of LittleBigPlanet 2 in January will get the PS3 back on phoenix wings for 2011. Maybe it will be Sony’s 3D World campaign that does the trick. And there’re always price cuts. Something, anything. This is good but it needs to do even better. ‘OK’ just won’t get the job done with its HD rival.

Gift wrapped together, the U.S. videogame industry coalesced (HO!) $5.06 billion ($5.22 billion including PC portion) in total sales for December, a 9% chimney drop from last December. Of this 5 billion dollar figure, total hardware sales snowed down 16% to $1.84 billion while total software sales flaked down 8% to $2.37 billion. Also, total accessory sales smoke stacked up 8% to $853.2 million. Once again Kinect is a dominating factor in that accessory boost.

As the odyssey of 2010 ends, the industry logged (HA!) $18.52 billion ($19.3 billion including PC portion) in total sales this year, a 6% kindling down from 2009. Of this outrageous 18 billion dollar figure, total hardware sales hung down 12% to $6.29 billion while total software sales tinseled down 6% to $9.35 billion. Meanwhile, total accessory sales tree-topped up 12% to $2.88 billion. While these declines may seem gloomy on the surface, these sales are comparable to the great sales of the previous years. Both 2008 and 2009 got their sales mostly from the efforts of Nintendo through DS and Wii. With both platforms showing slight yearly decline, the numbers are affected. Also, the virtual disappearance of Sony’s PlayStation 2 and PlayStation Portable platforms from the charts aids in the numerical erosion. In fact, it is XBox 360’s rise which helped the industry to achieve the numbers it has this year. Just a little perspective there.

Keep in mind that the percentages from the above paragraph refer to year-to-year comparisons between 2010 and 2009. And the percentages in the paragraph before that refer to year-to-year comparisons between December 2010 and December 2009.

Now for the games. With NPD’s new ‘all platforms combined’ format, we see Call of Duty: Black Ops at the top of the list by far. And with a multiplatform hit like that, you may expect the entire list to be dominated by cross-platform titles. But look who comes in next. It’s Just Dance 2, the monster Wii exclusive! Nintendo exclusives broke through the new fangled categorization charades to make big placements on the NPD software list. It was on like Donkey Kong™ (® Nintendo) and Epic like Mickey. And then Michael told ‘em Shamone. Also, with NPD’s recent inclusion of PC game sales, the latest World of Warcraft expansion pack named Cataclysm ranks high. After that the usual multiplatform suspects show up with Assassin’s Creed: Brotherhood, Madden NFL 11, NBA2K11, and Need for Speed: Hot Pursuit. Though the sales of the games haven’t been officially released (outside of the #1 position), all on this Top 10 are at least 1 million based on various million-sale reports of games not on this list.

SIDE BAR: Since September, NPD has completely decided to obscure its sales figures leaving vital information to the shadows. They had already been picking and choosing what details to report for quite a while then all of a sudden…Blackout. Ever since the public has been totally at the mercy of corporate PR and analyst hype when it comes to understanding the health of the videogame business. Independent sales trackers like NPD are supposed to be formed to negate that kind of thing.

My deep suspicion is that this change in reporting sales figures openly comes primarily from Microsoft’s influence. I believe that NPD’s change is part of the XBox 360 revitalization campaign. Every game and every system that makes it onto the NPD charts is basically a form of advertisement. The game that makes #1 gets the big headlines. The system that ranks on top gets all the accolades. When the public sees the charts for what they are, you have a counter to corporate spin trying to pump up angles like “most revenue” and “the PlayStation Family”. No one can play percentage games like “500% rise” when you can see plainly that 500% represents a rise from 750 to 4,500. It’s STILL only 4,500 when it was expected that it would sell 4,500,000. Unit numbers matter; percentages are just hype to back them up.

It was embarrassing to hear all the PR even from NPD representatives themselves when Wii Play or Wii Fit would hang on the charts month after month after month. The big blockbuster game of the hour gets shown up when 4 and 5 year old games like Mario Kart DS begin to chart on a regular basis long after that blockbuster has faded from the Top 10 scene. You couldn’t show the closing gap in software between PS3 and XBox 360 versions of the same game. You definitely couldn’t show the PS3 version beating the 360 one. To bury the details and leave it up to the corporate echo chamber is to control the narrative in the press. Control the story, control the perception. People begin to take so-called industry wizards like Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter seriously when there are no figures to counter the hype.

The All-American sales tracker from Port Washington, New York HAD to support the All-American console from Redmond, Washington in an industry led by the Japanese since 1985. The 360 was supposed to win. After the Nintendo era and the Sony era, this was Microsoft’s turn to rule. So it was written, so it shall come to pass. But this Christmas, NPD’s Blackout only gave Microsoft a silent night. Enjoy your numbers.

NPD’s Top Reported Hardware Sales in December

Nintendo DS – 2,500,000*
Nintendo Wii – 2,360,000*
Microsoft XBox 360 – 1,860,000**
Sony PlayStation 3 – 1,120,000†

*Nintendo
**Microsoft
†Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter

NPD’s Top Ten Combined Software Sales in December

01. Call of Duty: Black Ops (X360, PS3, Wii, DS, PC) – over 3,600,000
02. Just Dance 2 (Wii)
03. World of Warcraft: Cataclysm (PC)
04. Assassin’s Creed: Brotherhood (X360, PS3)
05. Donkey Kong Country Returns (Wii)
06. Disney Epic Mickey (Wii)
07. Madden NFL 11 (X360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP)
08. Michael Jackson: The Experience (Wii, DS, PSP)
09. NBA 2K11 (X360, PS3, Wii, PSP, PS2, PC)
10. Need for Speed: Hot Pursuit (X360, PS3, Wii, PC)

NPD’s Top Reported Hardware Sales in 2010

Nintendo DS – 8,557,500
Nintendo Wii – 7,069,900
Microsoft XBox 360 – 6,764,089
Sony PlayStation 3 – 4,242,700
Sony PlayStation Portable – over 1,125,300*
Sony PlayStation 2 – well over 349,800*

*numbers stated derived from 2010’s available estimates

NPD’s Top Ten Combined Software Sales in 2010

01. Call of Duty: Black Ops (X360, PS3, Wii, PC, DS) – over 12,000,000
02. Madden NFL 11 (X360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP)
03. Halo: Reach (X360)
04. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii)
05. Red Dead Redemption (X360, PS3)
06. Wii Fit Plus (Wii)
07. Just Dance 2 (Wii)
08. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (X360, PS3, PC)
09. Assassin’s Creed: Brotherhood (X360, PS3)
10. NBA 2K11 (X360, PS3, PS2, PSP, Wii, PC)